Capital Flows

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Defense Capital Goods Orders

Manufacturers' new orders for defense capital goods

Manufacturers' New Orders: Defense Capital Goods is a data set released monthly by the US Census Bureau. This data set tracks how much money US manufacturers are receiving in new orders for military equipment and technology, from aircraft and missiles to small arms and communication systems. It gives us a snapshot of how active the defense industry is at any given time.

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)

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Public Defense Companies - Capex & R&D

Capital expenditures and R&D investment by publicly traded defense companies

Public Defense Companies - Capex & R&D tracks the annual capital expenditures and research & development investment by publicly traded defense and aerospace companies. This measures how much these companies are investing in facilities, equipment, and innovation to support future growth and capabilities.

Source: Custom Research

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Venture Capital Investment in Defense

Annual VC investment in defense and dual-use companies

Venture Capital Investment in Defense tracks the volume of venture capital dollars flowing into U.S. defense-focused and dual-use companies. This data is updated annually and reflects early-stage investment activity in defense technology and innovation.

Source: Custom Research

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M&A Activity in Defense

Annual merger and acquisition activity in aerospace and defense

M&A Activity in Defense tracks the dollar value of mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. aerospace and defense sector. This includes private equity buyouts, strategic acquisitions by defense primes, and consolidation activity across the defense industrial base.

Source: Custom Research

Industrial Capacity

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Defense Aircraft Orders

Manufacturers' new orders for defense aircraft

Defense Aircraft Orders (ADEFNO) tracks new orders for complete military aircraft from manufacturers. This includes fighter jets, transport aircraft, helicopters, and other defense aviation platforms. These are typically large, multi-year contracts that represent major defense procurement programs.

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)

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Defense Aircraft Parts Orders

Manufacturers' new orders for defense aircraft parts and components

Defense Aircraft Parts Orders (ADAPNO) measures orders for aircraft components, subassemblies, and replacement parts used in military aviation. This includes everything from engines and avionics to structural components and weapons systems integration.

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)

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Industrial Production: Defense Equipment

Production output of defense and space equipment

The data set "Equipment: Defense and Space Equipment" measures how much the U.S. is producing in terms of military and space-related technology and machinery. Tracked monthly by the Federal Reserve, this index reflects the real output of U.S.-based manufacturers that build everything from weapons systems and armored vehicles to satellites and space launch components.

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)

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National Defense Spending

Federal defense consumption expenditures and procurement

National Defense Consumption Expenditures (FDEFX) measures the total federal government spending on defense goods and services. This includes military personnel, operations, procurement of weapons systems, and research & development.

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)

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Manufacturing Construction

Construction spending in the manufacturing sector

Manufacturing Construction Spending (PRMFGCONS) tracks expenditures on new manufacturing facilities, expansions, and renovations. This includes both defense-specific manufacturing facilities and the broader industrial base that supports defense production.

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)

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Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)

iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF investor sentiment

The iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) tracks ETFs focused on the aerospace and defense sectors, reflecting investor sentiment. It is a basket of stocks of companies in the defense industrial base.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Macro Environment

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Industrial Production Index

Overall U.S. industrial production output

Industrial Production Index (INDPRO) measures the real output of manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries. The index is benchmarked to 2017=100 and provides a broad measure of industrial activity across the entire U.S. economy.

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)

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Business Investment Trends

Private nonresidential fixed investment in structures and equipment

Private Nonresidential Fixed Investment (PNFI) measures business investment in structures, equipment, and intellectual property. This excludes residential construction and focuses on productive capital investments by businesses.

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)

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GDP Investment Component

Gross private domestic investment

Gross Private Domestic Investment (GPDI) measures business investment, residential investment, and changes in private inventories. This is a major component of GDP and represents the total investment activity in the economy.

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)

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Bank Lending Standards

Net percentage of banks tightening standards for commercial loans

Lending Standards (DRTSCILM) measures the net percentage of domestic banks reporting tightened lending standards for commercial and industrial loans. Positive values indicate tightening (harder to get loans), while negative values indicate loosening (easier to get loans).

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)

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Industrial Sector ETF (XLI)

Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund performance

XLI ETF tracks the Industrial sector of the S&P 500, including aerospace, defense, construction, engineering, machinery companies, and industrial conglomerates. It provides a broader view of industrial sector performance beyond just defense.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Prologis Inc. (PLD)

Industrial real estate REIT performance

Prologis (PLD) is the world's largest owner and operator of logistics real estate, including warehouses, distribution centers, and industrial facilities. Their properties support industrial and manufacturing activities across supply chains.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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10-Year Treasury Yield

U.S. Treasury 10-year constant maturity rate

10-Year Treasury Yield (DGS10) is the yield on U.S. Treasury securities with a 10-year maturity. This is a key benchmark interest rate that influences borrowing costs across the economy.

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)